Over the last three decades Indian foreign policy has increasingly converged with American priorities in what is commonly characterised as Indo-US strategic partnership. The collapse of the Soviet Union had signalled the end of the Nehruvian era of non-alignment and heralded a new phase of alliance between India and the United States of America. New Delhi's adoption of the policies of liberalisation, privatisation and globalisation cemented Indo-US ties in the economic realm while Washington's engagement in the Islamophobic ‘War on Terror’ and its newly identified strategic goal of containment of China increased India's relevance as a regional as well as global ally in US foreign policy calculations. The Indo-US nuclear deal added a more pronounced military dimension and in recent years India's growing proximity with Israel has reinforced and accelerated the country's ever-increasing integration with the US-led global order.
The ascent of Narendra Modi to power in India in 2014 and the rise of Donald Trump in the US also injected an added ideological impetus into the politico-economic dynamics powering the Indo-US partnership. Trump and Modi had more in common than their respective predecessors and the euphoria of Modi-Trump bonhomie started spilling over into spheres of domestic politics beyond the usual borderline of international diplomacy. Spectacles like Howdy Modi and Namaste Trump became the order of the day and the Indian Prime Minister even went to the extent of canvassing for a Trump victory in the 2020 US presidential elections. That was however not to be and Modi had to deal with the Biden Presidency for the next four years. And we now know from American records that the most expensive gift received by the Biden family came from none other than Modi in the form of a $20,000 diamond!
Politics has now again come a full circle in the US and we are now seeing Narendra Modi desperately awaiting an invite to the Trump swearing-in. Whether or not Trump obliges Modi with an invite, there are several key areas of growing tension in Indo-US bilateral ties where a beleaguered Modi government will have to cope with a belligerent Trump presidency. Both Modi and Trump have built their political careers on ultra-nationalist planks and howsoever much the US may need India as a strategic ally, when interests clash US ultra-nationalism will definitely insist on its pound of flesh. From India's continuing trade surplus with the US to the preponderance of Indians among foreign applicants in the American skilled jobs market, the Trump government is bound to demand major concessions from the Modi government on every point of conflict.
In recent years, India's trade relations have turned quite asymmetrical vis-a-vis the US and China. To take the most recent figures, in 2024 India had a $35.3 billion trade surplus with the US while running a $85.1 billion trade deficit with China. The Trump team is already accusing India of imposing 'excessive tariffs' on US goods and threatening reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports to the US. More than trade tariffs, the Trump narrative of MAGA (Make America Great Again) revolves around virulent anti-migrant rhetoric. If on earlier occasions the anti-immigrant campaign was directed almost exclusively against Mexicans and Muslims, this time round the preponderance of skilled Indians among America's H-1B visa holders has also become a major issue.
The H-1B visa programme was created by the US Congress in 1990 to enable American employers to hire foreign nationals in skilled occupations. The number of fresh H-1B visas issued annually has been capped at 85,000 since 2004, but including visa extensions the total number went up to 4,74,000 in 2022 and 3,86,000 in 2023. Indians account for more than 70 per cent of these visas with Chinese workers occupying a distant second position with about 12 per cent. While these skilled foreign professionals are usually paid less than their American counterparts and are hence beneficial to the employers, there is a growing sense of frustration among American workers over real or perceived loss of jobs and depression of wages in various professions. Regardless of the pro-Trump stance of the large pro-BJP section among the US Indian diaspora, existing and aspiring Indian workers in the US will have to face an increasingly adverse environment in the US in the coming days.
Deportation of undocumented Indian immigrants is also assuming larger proportions. Some 18,000 Indians have already been identified for deportation and the government of India has been accused of being 'uncooperative' in the deportation process. In his first term, Trump had deported 1.5 million people and in his second term he has promised a mass deportation campaign with an annual target of one million people. Obscure wartime deportation laws like the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 are being invoked to plan a massive cruel deportation campaign without any due process of judicial recourse. And the action of the state will undoubtedly be complemented and compounded by a racist xenophobic environment that had been a hallmark of the first term of Trump presidency and remains a core plank of the far-right Republican agenda under Trump.
The future of the Adani case in an American court is also set to grow as another major point of friction between the Trump administration and the Modi government. The criminal and civil proceedings against Gautam Adani and his associates concerning the $250 million bribery scam in India and the violations of relevant US anti-corruption laws have been clubbed together and brought under US District Judge Nicholas Garaufis, thereby indicating that there are no signs of any let-up in the judicial process. Several contracts awarded to the Adani group in different countries are either being cancelled or reviewed. With international ratings down and funds in the global market drying up, the Adani group has already had to exit from the Wilmar group, offloading its entire 44% stake exceeding US$2 billion. Trump of course has the power to grant him a presidential pardon, but such a favour to Modi can obviously only come with an enormous price.
Beyond the Trump-Modi bonhomie or lack of it or the future of the Adani group, the people of India surely will have to be watchful about the moves of the second Trump presidency. Real issues concerning the economic sovereignty of India and security and dignity of Indians in any part of the world can never be overlooked. And of course, beyond India's immediate and direct interests, resisting US imperialism has always been essential to building global peace, justice and planetary survival, and this can only become more urgent under a Trump dispensation.
